At present the UK is one of the last major economies apparently still in recession, with France and Germany exiting recession last summer. However, it now appears that there may be light at the end of the tunnel.

On 12 January 2010, the BBC reported on the latest UK economic survey from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). The survey covered Q4 2009 and improvements had appeared in many areas, most strikingly in manufacturing. However, it was not all good news in the sense that despite exports in the service sector strengthening, services were still struggling overall. Despite this the BBC reported that the BCC chief economist thought that there was enough in the Q4 results to support the view that the UK was on the brink of leaving recession. This view gained further credibility the following day when the National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicted that the UK economy would be shown to have grown by 0.3% in Q4 2009, effectively bringing an end to the recession. All eyes will be on the UK’s official gross domestic product figures for Q4 2009, which will be released on 26 January 2010.

Whatever the economic conditions for 2010 the regulatory landscape will continue to evolve as a result of the financial crisis.

Starting with banking regulation. In mid-December 2009, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, David Miles, gave a speech (The future financial landscape) in which he acknowledged that the way in which banks operate would now be different - in the near term because of the damage done to their balance sheets and the continuing fragility of their funding; and in the long term because of the need to ensure that the chances of another banking collapse like the one just seen are much reduced.

But how will this play out? Many commentators, including Miles, note that banks had been previously allowed to hold less capital than they used to and many had aimed to minimise their capital requirements. Banks were also holding less liquid assets than they used to and there was a wide belief that State support would be forthcoming in the event of difficulties. Whilst past events have shown that, to varying degrees, governments will support their banking sector, many of the other factors have already changed or will change in 2010. For instance, there seems to be universal recognition from regulators that banks need to hold more capital and more liquid assets. In 2010 the FSA will provide feedback on its Turner Review Conference Discussion Paper which looked at the trade-offs involved in increasing capital and liquidity requirements. It also discussed the problems of systemically important "too-big-to-fail" banks.

But banking regulation is not the only area changing: