We begin with an assessment of the likelihood of success on the merits. In
Planned Parenthood, 530 F.3d at 732–33, this Court clarified what is required to demonstrate a sufficient showing of likelihood of success on the merits. In general, “courts should still apply the familiar ‘fair chance of prevailing’ test where a preliminary injunction is sought to enjoin something other than government action based on presumptively reasoned democratic processes.”
Id. Where a party seeks to enjoin preliminarily the implementation of a duly enacted statute—as is the case here—district courts must make “a threshold finding that a party is
likely to prevail on the merits.”
Id. (emphasis added). The Court reasoned that by re-emphasizing “this more rigorous standard for determining a likelihood of success on the merits in these cases, we hope to ensure that preliminary injunctions that thwart a state's presumptively reasonable democratic processes are pronounced only after an appropriately deferential analysis.”
Id. at 733. In such cases, it is only after finding a party is likely to prevail on the merits that a district court should weigh the other
Dataphase factors.
Id. at 732.